New massive further damaging earthquake in the Dolakha area, Nepal - Many more fatalities

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Contributors: Armand Vervaeck, James Daniell, Jens-Udo Skapski

For our main NEPAL article : Click here

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Update : for fatality numbers, please follow our main Nepal article (link in bold just above this update)

Update : 148 dead in Nepal, 62 in India, 2 in Bangladesh and 1 in China. Many more houses were destroyed.

Update 16.00 UTC: 117 have unfortunately died in Nepal. Around 2700 have been injured. In India, the number from various counts is 44 dead but there are also reports of fewer with 19. We hope that this is the case. This brings the total to 164.

8202 are reported dead from the 1st quake with an increase of 50 in the last 3 days.

Update 06.00 UTC: 96 have died in Nepal. 44 in India. 2 in Bangladesh and 1 in China.

Update 21.00 UTC: 91 dead and over 2400 injured in Nepal. Dolakha was hardest hit with 40. Fortunately many people were outside their houses and because of the damage from the first quake many people were not in harms way when the second quake hit as they are still waiting to rebuild.

Update 12:00 UTC: 74 have died in Nepal, and 2374 injuries. The death toll has thus risen to 121. It seems as though a lot of people were outside of their buildings in Dolakha and Sindhupalchok which has reduced the death toll from what was expected.

Update 6:55 UTC: Death tolls per district in Bihar (INDIA): Sitamarhi: 8; East Cham: 5; Darbhanga: 7; Patna: 3; Saran: 3; Madhepura: 2; Samastipur: 2; West-Cham: 1; Siwan: 2; Gopalganj: 2; Nawada: 1; Aurangabad: 1; Hajipur: 1; Sheikhupura: 1; Katihar: 1; Araria: 1; Muzaffarpur: 1 ; In Uttar Pradesh 2 people also died.

Update 6:30 UTC: 1 additional death came from the M5.9 aftershock of 21:25 UTC. Bhutan has also seen damage from the second major quake.

Update 5:45 UTC: Including the first quake, the total dead and missing has reached 8742 - our hearts go out to the Nepalese, Bihar and Tibetan communities

Update 5:40 UTC: The total death toll has reached 8250 from the first quake with 377 missing with most coming from Nepal. This makes the first quake the 38th highest death toll since 1900 (using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database).

Update 5:30 UTC: Many more people have been found dead following this M7.3 earthquake.

The death toll now stands at 115 with 68 being in Nepal, 44 in India, 2 in Bangladesh and 1 in China.

1926 have been injured in Nepal, ca. 200 in Bangladesh, ca. 100 in India and 80 in China.

The economic loss estimate from this separate quake is in the order of $500 million USD accounting for the already damaged buildings from the previous event.

Unfortunately, this will also cause many indirect losses, as tourism, and employment takes a further hit.

Update 20:30 UTC: Another strong aftershock of the M7.3 mainshock has hit. This had M4.5 but was quite close to Kathmandu.

Update 18:40 UTC: At least 50 people have died in Nepal, 17 in India and 1 in China.

This value is unfortunately expected to rise as locations are discovered in Dolakha.

Even with 20% occupancy of buildings near the epicenter still, using theoretical models, between 50-400 fatalities are expected in Nepal.

Update 18:30 UTC: There is a new report out on the losses from this earthquake as well as from the previous earthquake from Earthquake Report in combination with CEDIM, SAI, EMI.

http://www.cedim.de/download/CEDIM_ImpactSummary_EarthquakeNepal2015_Report3.pdf

Update 16:00 UTC: No new updates and counts from the last numbers. We expect updates in the coming hours or tomorrow morning.

Update 14:20 UTC: 41 are dead in Nepal but counting will take a number of days. 1115 injured.

Update 13:20 UTC: Good news! The death toll has reduced to 37 in Nepal.

Lalitpur 1; Sunsari 1; Sindhupalchok 5; Dolakha 19; Unknown 1; Sarlahi 1; Sindhuli 2; Rautahat 1; Ramechhap 1; Gorkha 1 - 37 deaths in Nepal.

Update 12:55 UTC: Landslides are blocking roads to Dolakha which unfortunately means that the worst of the damage is yet to be realised.

We are hopeful that more people were outside than calculated. If 85% were outside at the time near the epicenter, the expected death toll is closer to 200.

Update 12:40 UTC: Landslides on the (Sidhartha, Koshi, Arniko) Highways are in many places. Landslides have occurred in:-
Rasuwa - Mailung
Dolakha - Singati
Dhankuta - Karkichhap
Syanja - Bhalupahad
Ramechhap - Lakhanpur

Update 12:15 UTC : 16 are reported dead in Bihar, with at least 21 injuries.

Update 12:05 UTC :
Sindhupalchok - 9 deaths; Dolakha - 19 deaths; Kathmandu - 4 deaths; Lalitpur - 1 death; Sindhuli - 2 deaths; Sunsari - 1 death; Rautahat - 1 death; Sarlahi - 1 death; Dhanusha - 1 death; Ramechhap - 3 deaths = 42 deaths in Nepal.

This follows the following distribution. We hope that given that the earthquake occurred around 1pm, that many more people were outside, and that the death toll will not reach 500.

Update 11:55 UTC : The Indian injuries have been confirmed: 16 in Bihar, 8 in West Bengal. "Several" in UP. 25 are said to be buried under a collapsed building also in Bihar.

Update 11:25 UTC : Injured so far: Kathmandu 357, Bhaktapur 187, Lalitpur 174 - in total 1117 injured.

There have been 12 "live rescues"", 9 in Dolakha and 3 in Kathmandu.

Update 11:15 UTC : 51 dead : 36 Nepal, 14 India and 1 in China. 1132 injuries.

Update 10:54 UTC : This earthquake is a new event, and has its own aftershock sequence. This is the sequence so far as mapped out by Andreas Schaefer, CEDIM.

A map of the aftershocks of the M7.3 mainshock earthquake of today (Andreas Schaefer, CEDIM).

Update 10:45 UTC : The time of day was again lucky for the Nepalese, with many people being outside of their houses. We hope that a lot more than 40% were out of their houses!

Update 10:45 UTC : At least 16 have died in Nepal, and 335 are reported injured so far. Chautara - 2 have at least died. 8 have died in Dolakha (this may mean that Bhaktapur was wrong information. 2 have died in Sindhuli.

Update 10:42 UTC : At least 4 people have died in Bihar, India. 4 people have died in Chautara, Sindhupalchok, and 8 in Bhaktapur. More information is expected from Dolakha soon.

Update 10:30 UTC : The likely fatalities from the CATDAT model unfortunately from this cruel triggered event seem to be around the expected 250-600 mark depending on how many people were in their houses. It should be noted that these are median estimates, and that only the distribution should be looked at. Based on historical sequences, this triggered event was quite likely. Most fatalities are expected in Dolakha and Sindhupalchok.

Likely fatality distribution from the model of Dr. James Daniell

Information is quite slow to surface due to the shock and recovery that was going on at the time of the event.

Update 10:10 UTC : Many rockfalls and landslides have occurred.

Update 09:40 UTC : This triggered earthquake has caused much damage throughout Dolakha.

Update 09:30 UTC : Much damage is expected in Dolakha. 4 have been killed in Bihar.

Update 09:20 UTC : Updated CATDAT fatality estimate using 40% occupancy: median 580 fatalities with a range from 125-2000. The economic losses have reduced to 250-1200 million with $550 million coming from additional damage. This is with removing the previous losses from the M7.8 earthquake. This does not include the potential extra landslide deaths and losses!

Update 09:15 UTC : 8 dead in Bhaktapur.

Update 09:10 UTC : Of the fatalities through the theoretical model, most are expected in Sindhupalchok (+100), Dolakha (+170), Dhanusa, and a few in Kavrepalanchok.

Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, Kathmandu are expected to have additional damage.

Chautara has reported 4 fatalities and a number of collapsed buildings.

Update 09:05 UTC :

Nepal Police @NepalPoliceHQ

Please stay in open field, help us make free road, do not make phone nw busy. SMS is suggested.

Update 08:55 UTC : From the CATDAT Model:

"The key issue with this triggered earthquake is that there will be much damage on both sides of the border and there is very little data historically. Taking the intensities into account as well as a very different occupancy ratio, it is likely that there will be 50-815 fatalities with a median of 200 additional fatalities. This is using a 20% occupancy ratio in affected communities.

In addition to the damage caused by the first quake, we are calculating an additional 300-1400 million USD damage caused by this earthquake with a median of 600 (620) million USD. There are many uncertainties at this point in terms of all losses, so this will be updated in the coming hours."

Update 08:38 UTC : There will be significant damage from this earthquake, in already damaged locations. Sindhupalchok, was already hard hit from the earthquake, with most people living outside.

Update 07:38 UTC : Below the shaking maps as published by USGS

Update 07:25 UTC : This earthquake or aftershock will certainly cause new fatalities and even a lot more damage

22km (14mi) SE of Zham, China
66km (41mi) ENE of Banepa, Nepal
69km (43mi) ENE of Panaoti, Nepal
83km (52mi) E of Kathmandu, Nepal
84km (52mi) ENE of Patan, Nepal

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