Extremely dangerous earthquake in Irian Jaya (Papua Barat), Indonesia

Irian Jaya - courtesy Photobucket.com

UPDATE 8:18 UTC (6 hours after the earthquake ) : No news from the Indonesian press on eventual damage or injuries.
If we receive more news from the epicenter area, we will bring it to you immediately.

Initial report
Depending on the data source used to compute risks for this earthquake, the outcome will be totally different.
If we follow the calculated values of USGS (USA), earthquake-report.com fears a violent earthquake for the villages just above the epicenter.  The impact of this strong earthquake will be strengthened by the extremely shallow depth of the hypocenter.
Based on the USGS data, USGS has calculated the probable impact of this earthquake on the Modified Mercalli scale. For 1,000 people this would result in severe shaking (MMI VIII) and for 8,000 people in strong shaking (MMI VII). Both Mercalli values have a potential of damage and injuries.

If we follow EMSC (Europe) values, the far greater depth of the hypocenter (40 km) would ease the impact a lot.
BMKG, the Indonesian Seismological Center, is publishing a depth of 10 km (also very shallow) but another location.
As we cannot reach the BMKG server on the internet, we can unfortunately not post their computed location.
Exact location is of course very important to predict the dangerous character of an earthquake.
Conclusion so far : as we are unsure about the exact location of the epicenter and as we know that a lot of these remote primitive villages are hard to reach (no roads or only 4 wheel drive roads mostly damaged severely by landslides after an earthquake). Easiest way is mostly helicopter (which are exceptionally used) or by the sea (slow and weather permitting).
It can take until tomorrow before we have more details about the outcome of this earthquake.

GDACS has issued a GREEN earthquake alert for this earthquake = very limited chance on damage and/or injuries (earthquake-report.com is not following the Green color calculation). These predictions are based on theoretical models.

Most important Earthquake Data :
Magnitude : Mb 5.8
Tuesday, November 16, 2010 at 10:39:41 AM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 5.1 km
Send an "earthquake experience report" for this earthquake
Geo-location(s) :
3 km of Kedir, Irian Jaya, Indonesia
197 km (123 miles) WNW (287°) from Jayapura, Irian Jaya, Indonesia

Links to important maps
USGS Did You Feel It Map
Google satellite map (USGS -  USA)
Google satellite map (BMKG - Indonesia)
Google satellite map (EMSC - Europe)
USGS Shaking map
USGS impact on population map
EMSC Seismic hazard map
LIVE SEISMOGRAM (nearest Seismograph station)
GDACS Green Earthquake Alert (Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System)

QuakeSOS has been developed to help actively people who are caught in an earthquake + delivers "Earthquake Report" information on your iPhoneQuakeSOS is a FREE iPhone application developed by Armand Vervaeck, the creator and main contributor to Earthquake Report. The Application simplifies immediate group communication to friends and family members (with your exact GPS location) and is constantly feeding the users with "Earthquake Report" news. Together with your own family and friends, QuakeSOS will be your closest earthquake friend.