Collapsing ceilings and walls put lives in danger. People in many parts of the world live in constant fear of earthquakes that can reduce entire cities to piles of rubble. Scientists at Bayer MaterialScience, in cooperation with industrial and academic partners, have developed an economical and effective earthquake protection measure in the form of glass fiber fabric combined with a special adhesive which increases the stability of masonry and therefore reduces the risk that apartment and office buildings will turn into deathtraps.
The patent-pending EQ-Top system is as easy to install as wallpaper.

When the earth shakes, every second counts. A strong earthquake turns apartment and office buildings into deathtraps. Pictures from Haiti, Chile, China, New Zealand and Japan illustrate the devastating effects of this natural disaster, with rescue teams searching through ruined buildings and heaps of rubble for survivors.
Buildings collapse in fractions of seconds, like houses of cards. “Even smaller earthquakes can cause dramatic damage, especially to masonry buildings,” explains Professor Lothar Stempniewski, Director of the Institute for Concrete Construction and Construction Materials Technology at the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT).
The degree of destruction depends less on the severity of the earthquake on the Richter scale than on “how long the structures are shaken by the destructive energy from below the ground,” he says.
Stempniewski has been investigating “earthquake protection for buildings” for many years. Together with experts from Bayer MaterialScience and KAST, a company located in Sonthofen, Bavaria, he has now developed an effective and economical measure that provides added protection against earthquakes. EQ-Top is a special glass fiber fabric “which is simply glued to the wall like wallpaper,” explains Michael Engel, a project manager at Bayer MaterialScience.

“If we can delay the collapse of the masonry or in the best case prevent it altogether, we can save lives,” Stempniewski adds. With his colleagues at the institute, Stempniewski therefore looked for solutions that are effective, economical and easy to install. At the same time, they must provide long lasting protection and give residents those precious extra seconds to escape.

The demand for protection systems of this type is enormous. More than 1.3 billion people worldwide live in earthquake zones. “The starting point for our work was to improve seismic protection in Romania, one of the regions in Europe at greatest risk from earthquakes,” Stempniewski says. In their tests, the KIT scientists identified characteristic fracture behaviors in brick and mortar structures: “Initially they yield at points where stresses are especially high such as the corners of door frames, windows or the mortar between bricks,” according to the KIT scientist. That gave them the idea of covering the walls with a layer of glass fiber fabric to increase the stability of the masonry. “But ordinary wallpaper paste is incapable of transmitting the complex loads from the masonry to the fabric,” explains Dr. Matthias Wintermantel, a Bayer MaterialScience adhesives expert.

Based on polyurethane dispersion Dispercoll™ U, the water-repellent adhesive is the crucial link between the glass fiber fabric and the plaster surface. It helps to distribute the impact energy of the earthquake across the entire wall surface. Even if joints crack along the full length of the wall (left), the adhesive and glass fiber fabric hold the masonry together. The new EQ-Top system systematically strengthens the weak points in a wall such as door frames and windows. This improves safety for the residents.

Life-saving fabric: the thin wallpaper made of special glass fibers stabilizes masonry and helps to delay – or even prevent – the collapse of entire blocks of houses, such as here in Adapazari, Turkey

In a research alliance with KIT and the fabric specialists from KAST, Wintermantel and his Bayer Material Science team therefore developed the key component for the new EQ-Top system: a special adhesive which firmly anchors the new “seismic wallpaper” to the plaster surface. “We previously tested all conventional adhesives – from simple wallpaper paste to special high performance adhesive. Not one of them was able to meet the tough demand for uniting flexibility and good bonding strength,” said Moritz Urban, a PhD student at the KIT Institute. The test substances were either too weak and detached from the wall or were so brittle that they pulled the plaster right off. It was the work of the Bayer Material-Science scientists which brought about the decisive advance in earthquake protection. Says Stempniewski: “The adhesive is the vital link between the glass fiber and the wall and must therefore adhere equally well to both surfaces.” The flexible special adhesive now used is based on the versatile polyurethane dispersion Dispercoll™ U created by Bayer Material Science. This product is also used to treat the glass fiber fabric, which gives it high tear strength, among other things. Another major benefit of the adhesive is that it is water-based and contains no organic solvents, which means that EQ-Top is ideally suited for indoor use.
“EQ-Top enables us to systematically strengthen the weak points in a wall,” explains Engel. The protective mechanism works like the diagonal braces of a half-timbered house. It distributes the impact energy of the earthquake across the entire wall surface, which thus helps to absorb the energy and prevent points of stress concentration such as door frames and windows from falling under the load. Even if joints crack along the full length of the wall, the glass fiber fabric and adhesive hold the bricks together, which prevents or at least delays the collapse of chunks of masonry and protects the residents.

But the developers had more than just the safety aspect in mind. The protective wallpaper was also designed to be easy to install, unlike systems based was able to meet the tough demand for uniting flexibility and good bonding strength,” said Moritz Urban, a PhD student at the KIT Institute. The test substances were either too weak and detached from the wall or were so brittle that they pulled the plaster right off.
It was the work of the Bayer Material-Science scientists which brought about the decisive advance in earthquake protection. Says Stempniewski: “The adhesive is the vital link between the glass fiber and the wall and must therefore adhere equally well to both surfaces.” The flexible special adhesive now used is based on the versatile polyurethane dispersion Dispercoll™ U created by Bayer Material Science. This product is also used to treat the glass fiber fabric, which gives it high tear strength, among other things.
Another major benefit of the adhesive is that it is water-based and contains no organic solvents, which means that EQ-Top is ideally suited for indoor use.

“EQ-Top enables us to systematically strengthen the weak points in a wall,” explains Engel. The protective mechanism works like the diagonal braces of a half-timbered house. It distributes the impact energy of the earthquake across the entire wall surface, which thus helps to absorb the energy and prevent points of stress concentration such as door frames and windows from falling under the load. Even if joints crack along the full length of the wall, the glass fiber fabric and adhesive hold the bricks together, which prevents or at least delays the collapse of chunks of masonry and protects the residents.

But the developers had more than just the safety aspect in mind. The protective wallpaper was also designed to be easy to install, unlike systems based on carbon fibers, for which the plaster must first be removed, a process that is both very dirty and very expensive.
Carbon-fiber systems can therefore only be used in complex and expensive renovation projects. “EQ-Top can be easily installed by ordinary paperhangers,” Engel says, which generally makes the installation a great deal cheaper.

The intensive development work was worth the effort. EQ-Top was able to prove its worth in numerous tests. The researchers took their system to its limits for the tests. They used huge hydraulic presses to crush one segment of wall after the other – some reinforced by the EQ-Top system and others without it for comparison. The difference was remarkable. The bricks in the protected wall did crumble under very heavy pressure, but the glass fiber fabric and adhesive always held them together. In contrast, the unreinforced wall simply collapsed.

Stress tests: Moritz Urban (photo, left) affixes the seismic wallpaper to a brick wall in the testing hall. Later, the wall will be shaken as it would during an earthquake. Even if the bricks crumble under heavy strain, the glass fiber fabric and adhesive hold the reinforced wall together. Over the course of many tests, adhesives expert Dr. Matthias Wintermantel (photo, right) optimized the special adhesive in such a way that the important protective layer stays firmly affixed to the plaster surface.

The large-scale tests in which the researchers constructed entire walls with and without doors on a huge shaking table were especially spectacular. The table, built from a thick steel plate, was made to vibrate systematically. The vibrations were transferred to the superstructures – just like during an earthquake when the ground shakes. “We were surprised by the results. Walls reinforced with EQ-Top were virtually impossible to destroy during the tests,” Stempniewski says.

The researchers are convinced that the EQ-Top system could have prevented the worst consequences of Glass fiber fabric prevents buildings from collapsing Further information on the topic of earthquake protection recent earthquakes. “In the New Zealand quake in early 2011, a great many walls crumbled and many houses collapsed completely as a result,” says KIT researcher Moritz Urban. The scientist estimates that the system could have prevented 60 to 70 percent of the damage. “Often it doesn’t take much to prevent the collapse of a building,” Urban says. The scientists are already receiving inquiries about the seismic protection wallpaper from all over the world. The EQ-Top system will soon go on the market, giving people in earthquake zones a few more precious seconds and thereby protecting many of them from the worst consequences of earthquakes.

Text and images : courtesy BAYER, KAST and KIT

http://www.research.bayer.com/seismic-wallpaper

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After every major earthquake there is hype for “earthquake early warning systems” like smartphone apps, computer tools, etc.

Let’s explain first what happens when an earthquake is triggered and probably explaining it, will give already part of the answer!
- Due to the extreme strength of 2 moving plates or sections of plates,  the crust will rupture at the weakest point and an earthquake is generated.  The rupture will lead to 2 main waves which will be disseminated from the rupture point or area.
a) the P-wave or Primary wave which is used by the alert systems to trigger the alert. Depending on the Magnitude and the composition of the ground layers the P wave generally travels somewhere between 4 to 8 km/second.
b) the S-wave travels approx. at 60% of the P-waves (let’s call it not so fast) and is responsible for the start of the shaking.
When a massive shallow earthquake hits below land, the shaking will be almost simultaneously felt together with the alert sound of an early warning app or tool, as there are usually only a few seconds in between both waves at short distances.
The area at risk for damage and injuries in 95% of the earthquakes is limited to tens of km, not to hundreds of km (with the exception of soft soil zones and large M7.5 events).  Only national seismology agencies who have installed multiple instruments all over the country are able to trigger an alert. Measuring the alert and redistributing an alert signal will at least need some seconds. The area at risk is already shaking heavily at that time. Drop, Cover and Hold (the generally accepted preparedness standard) is the only recommended way to protect you from injuries. Further away from the epicenter (from 50 to several hundred km) the time in between the alert and the time the shaking starts can be used to take the Drop, Cover and Hold position or to follow the approved evacuation methods.

EAS can be of serious help in the case of Tsunamis and if the signal is triggered by National seismology agency. In most cases however, authorities have installed professional tsunami alert sirens along the coast.

The video below has been made by the Huffington Post, a USA on-line news website. Dr. Thomas Heaton directs the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at CalTech who tells the audience that also the US is working on it, but some hurdles have to be taken. Please be aware that there is a short advertisement at the start.

 The earthquake-report.com conclusion :
- early alert systems give a false feeling of security near the epicenter
- early alert signals should be provided by government or local authority specialized agencies
- early alert systems have to be used to take the Drop, Cover and Hold position until the shaking is over.
- early alert systems may never be used to evacuate buildings, unless the technology is there to invent alerts which can predict an exact time that the secondary wave would reach your location.
- early alert systems are being used and should be used even more in automatic “safety switches” like : trains (automatic stops), elevators (mandatory stop at next level blocking doors open), etc.
- early alert smartphone systems can be useful in smartphones when the Alert message is combined with your GPS location and if a voice can speak loudly  “earthquake – weak shaking expected at your location”. All this without having to manipulate your phone!
- early alert systems can be beneficial in case of tsunami danger and for shutting down hospitals, lifelines or switching power supplies to retain essential services
- early alert systems DO NOT predict earthquakes

Early Warning Systems in Mexico City, Japan and cities where they are a long distance from the major fault zones but built on soft soils give useful data for citizens to prepare. However, other early alert systems should only be used for authorities.

We have found a very good article which was written in the Alaskajournal.com. The article describes what currently is tested in the USA and what an alert should have to do, how much time it allows etc.

Remarks based on our extensive experience following up what happens in real life during an earthquake :
- computers are normally not connected with backup power or batteries. We experience in 97% of all destructive earthquakes that power is lost within seconds
- smartphones are great BUT most Mobile network sending masts are NOT battery powered and will go off-line instantly when there is a power failure
- in case of battery powered masts (like in New Zealand) people are almost instantly run into an overheated network, disabling the great apps on your smartphone. A simple solution is repeated over an over again by earthquake-report.com. Block voice calls and send a Text message that “Due to an earthquake, only Text messages will be allowed until further notice”.

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Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology

Read also : Comparing the current impact of the “Van” Earthquake to past earthquakes in Eastern Turkey

CEDIM Forensic Earthquake Analysis Group

(Status: Tuesday October 25, 2011 15:00 Central European Time & 13:00 UTC)

With the support of earthquake-report.com

Summary

The only sound loss estimate currently available is provided by KOERI with 700 to 1000 fatalities, with PAGER reanalysing their data to bring the value from 10,000 fatalities to just over 1000 fatalities. We estimate the direct economic loss to be in the order of 500-1000 million USD given past Turkish earthquakes, damage and intensities seen and the current economic status of the region.

As there is still uncertainty on the intensity of ground motion these numbers can change in the forthcoming days. Currently we have to assume that in the epicentral area the ground motion exceeded the code level, however, this statement will have to be confirmed or rejected by forthcoming data.

The counted death toll is at 366 at the moment (as of 25.10 14:00CET). 1301 people have been injured, and 2262 buildings destroyed. Earthquake-report.com has the latest updates.

Collapses of schools remains a critical issue in Turkish earthquakes and requires full attention of government agencies in the future. Had the event occurred on Monday morning instead of Sunday afternoon an additional drama were likely.

The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) contributes quite substantial to loss mitigation, although a higher insurance penetration would have been helpful as in the Van region there is only a 14% take out of TCIP policies as compared to the possible number.

CEDIM research will contribute to improve future rapid loss estimations with innovative data-driven approaches. An analysis of socio-economic implications regarding shelter needs and reconstruction issues will be released within the next 24 hours.

Ground Motion and Intensity

Ground motion estimates have been published by Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI, http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/). In the epicentral area they reach values of 60% of gravitational acceleration and peak ground velocities of 50 cm/s. This would be beyond standard code levels. EMS intensities are estimates as above VIII within an area with 25 km diameter. However, these values are computed, not measured and must still be validated by field observations of the Turkish strong motion networks.

 Courtesy of KOERI (http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/)

The Area affected

The HDI (Human Development Index) in the affected region (Van, Hakkari, Bitlis, Mus) is among the lowest in Turkey. Please note that this is the 2009 definition of HDI and not the current UNDP 2^nd version. HDI is a combination of literacy rate, life expectancy and GDP (per capita). In the Van area (0.630), the HDI is equivalent to Bhutan, Solomon Islands, India or Congo, as compared to the average HDI of Turkey which is 0.810. Thus, the development of the region poses many problems for health issues.

Van Province has a population of 1.035 million (as of 31.12.2010, ABPRS) with a very low population density corresponding to 54.3/km². Compared to other provinces, the average household size is relative high (between 7 and 8 persons). It has 539,619 residents living in cities, and a village population of 495,799.

The official population of Van City was 367,000 in 2010 as per the Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS), but values of 500,000 and 600,000 have been estimated by government sources. The Ercis part of the province has Ercis City (approx. 77,000) and many other settlements. (Urban=78,397, Rural=66,832). Based on the available Census data 1985, 1990, and 2000 the population of Van province increased substantially during from 1985 to 2000, both cities at least doubled their number of inhabitants during the last 25 years.

Data Source: State Institute of Statistics, Turkey.

Current Losses

The current (25.10. 14:00 CET) death toll is reported as 366. 1301 people have been reported as injured, and 2262 buildings destroyed. No economic loss estimates from government sources are currently available.

13,000 tents have been dispatched through the Turkish Red Crescent point to about 40,000-45,000 homeless people. 3000 units of temporary housing have been planned for creation within a month. 263,000TRY (around 146,000USD) has been collected from donations so far. It has been suggested by the Prime Minister’s Emergency Management Department (Başbakanlık Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığının) that 3 million TRY (around 1.66 million USD) is required for initial emergency relief.

The ministry of education announced (24.10.2011) many schools in the area collapsed or have been seriously damaged. As no children were at school on Sunday, apart possibly those attending boarding schools a particularly high death toll may have been avoided. There have been reports however of teachers and students being killed. School collapses are a notorious problem, as seen in the 1999 Izmit earthquake and more recently in the 2003 Bingöl event.

Loss Modelling

PAGER has released a 3^rd version of their estimate, after the previous much higher estimates of around 10000 casualties, to now calculate slightly over 1000 fatalities (median), by moving Van City from IX to VIII intensity. The economic loss has also moved from over $10 billion USD, to a median of around $2 billion USD, with large variability.

Courtesy of PAGER (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/pager )

This now much closer mimics the loss values envisaged by the ELER program of KOERI which were between 700 and 1000 deaths.

Generally such disasters have taken around 10-25% of provincial GDP in the past, and using a factor system, it still seems that around $500 million-$1 billion USD is a reasonable estimate. Van is one of the poorest regions of Turkey.

Total economic damage is estimated in the low single-digit billion USD from EQECAT CatWatch mimicking the PAGER model estimate. Although this is 1/10^th of the 1999 Izmit earthquake, it also should be noted that this earthquake is in a region around 4 times poorer (GDP-based) than Izmit. EQECAT has brought forward an insured loss estimate of around $100-200 million through their models which would also fit in reasonably well.

The GDP of Mus, Hakkari, Van and Bitlis together (4 provinces) was in the order of 8.66 billion TRY back in 2008 (around 6.45 billion USD 2008). 21.3% was Agriculture, around 15.8% was industry and 62.9% was services. Due to the economy of Turkey changing significantly from 1995-2010, much change has occurred in the region creating many economic uncertainties for analysis.

Insurance Exposure (TCIP)

An important tool to mitigate losses via insurance is available with the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP, www.tcip.gov.tr). It has been established after the 1999 Izmit earthquake by Decree Law No.587 “Decree Law Relating to Compulsory Earthquake Insurance” the same year and started being operational in 2001. It is a compulsory insurance for private residential buildings in municipalities and offered by 29 insurance companies in Turkey. As any insurance it redistributes losses in space and time and thus mitigates the regional and temporal impact, but also stipulates code compliancy for modern buildings.

The number of sold policies was at 2.43 million in 2001 (19% of the insurable buildings), fell after this but grew again constantly since 2003 with fewer policies in the past two years. The average national insurance penetration is around 20% with notable differences across the regions and provinces. For instance the TCIP 2009 annual report indicates a 32.5% penetration in the Marmara Region, but only 13.7 in the East Anatolian Region.

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Except that earthquakes themselves can be destructive all over the world, today's major earthquakes have certainly one major effect in common :

Major mobile connectivity problems when an earthquake strikes

Result 1 : people cannot reach each other and are highly concerned about their family members and friends in other locations.
Result 2 : all communications (data, voice and text) are wiped out, including those partly used by emergency services
Result 3 : people are rushing to their cars to drive home (during working hours), to schools, etc and create chaotic traffic (even more chaotic if some roads are blocked by cracks, debris, etc)

Coping with saturated mobile networks

Especially earthquakes which occur in or near major cities like Vancouver, Tokyo, Christchurch, New Delhi, Istanbul, Santiago de Chile, etc. are very dangerous for knocked out communications.
Lines can be knocked out by saturation or by technical failures.
We have to look into both reasons to find (easy, fast and cheap) solutions.

If the earthquake generates only minor damage, the lines generally are back to normal in seconds to minutes as people will calm down and continue what they are doing.
If a person, however, hears about injured people, destruction and casualties, he or she will not rest until being in contact with their loved ones. This is perfectly normal human behavior.

Can we prepare people how to handle their phones just after an earthquake ?
The answer is NO
Why : almost everybody will think that his family or friends are the highest value on earth and do merit "priority" service.
Teaching and preparing people on what to do in cities with a population on several hundred thousand, is UTOPIA.

Can the authorities and Networks manage behavior after an earthquake ?
The answer is YES
How ? : in following a few stringent "scenario" rules like :
a) by cutting/limiting VOICE communication based on earthquake alert levels for high magnitudes and limiting bandwidth for medium size earthquakes.  In case of a partial cut to services, all the people in the network could receive a text message like "Only text messaging is allowed until further notice due to an earthquake".
The levels of triggering such automatic cuts and according messages would be provided in cooperation with seismologists/geologists based on their MMI estimate (mainly based on historic data).
A technique called "Cell broadcasting" allows text messages to be sent to all cell phones in a specified region in a matter of seconds!
b) by reserving the full bandwidth to text messaging
c) by blocking all graphic internet data (pictures / advertisements / videos) for internet data traffic – text only takes a very small portion of the data bandwidth capabilities
d) by reserving enough bandwidth for voice and data for authorities and all kind of rescue services.
If the automatic triggering would not be accepted, a similar system can be triggered manually by organizations like FEMA (USA), ONEMI (Chile), etc
The discomfort of some will give comfort to everyone.

About technical failures

During 1 year of reporting we came across a number of remarkable findings like:
- A rather small earthquake in Peru made mobile connectivity almost impossible due to power outage.
- The September 2010 Christchurch damaging earthquake revealed an astonishing and remarkable connectivity. As during so many other earthquakes, power was immediately cut, but because of batteries the Mobile beacons continued (overloaded) to do the job.

The simple solution to cope with technical failures:
- Batteries which guarantee communications for at least 2 hours should be mandatory for every mobile mast and station / substation
- Construction standards for stations and masts must be able to resist a 1-in-1000 year earthquake, depending on the area/country. i.e. to build them to similar standards as other lifelines such as hospitals – which are required to have minimal damage given a large earthquake.

The cost of all these measures is minimal compared to the chaos that would come with a tragic earthquake.
Authorities should impose all of these measures. The results would be astonishing.
Today's technical wonders should be used at maximum to sustain a well organized society, able to handle big earthquakes.

Examples of earthquakes where Mobile networks where down due to one of both mentioned reasons
August 23, 2011 : Virginia earthquake – As gottabemobile reported, it is wreaking havoc on the cell networks from Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile and AT&T. No one cell company seems to be immune from the massive burst of cellphone traffic.
September 18, 2011 : Himalaya earthquake Sikkim, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China
 

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We leave the answer for those watching the 47 seconds video! Enjoy

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Music via: APM
Running Blind
Composers: Balfe, Lorne David Roderick (PRS) (C)
&
Latte Time a
Composers: Martin, William (ASCAP) (C)

Read also : Magnitude 4.5 aftershock Virginia + xxx “I Have Felt It” reports
Read also : Video selection of the Virginia earthquake by Earthquake-Report.com
Read also : Very strong and dangerous earthquake rattles Virginia – damage overview
Read also : Understanding the Magnitude 5.8 Virginia earthquake (August 23, 2011)

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Understanding what happens at the epicenter of an earthquake, as the tectonic plates beneath the earth shift and the earth shakes, could help us better predict when and where the next big one will hit.
For the past six years scientists from a number of institutions have joined in a project called San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, or SAFOD.
They have drilled to the core of the San Andreas Fault, near Parkfield California, down to a specific area along the fault known to experience a number of small earthquakes every year.
By retrieving and studying core rock samples from that site, geologists Chris Marone and Brett Carpenter and hydro-geologist Demian Saffer are getting a better understanding of the types of rocks involved in major quakes, versus the rocks present at more forgiving ones. They’re putting core samples through rigorous tests at their lab at Penn State to determine the rocks’ strengths and breaking points. They say their project is just one piece of a complex puzzle - how to better predict when major earthquakes, like the one that devastated Japan, will occur.

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Video and text are courtesy VideosatNSF.

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The first test of the communication network of the United Nations-backed tsunami early warning system for the North-eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean was carried out successfully today, paving the way for the establishment of regional tsunami warning centers.

Tsunami warning focal points of 31 countries in the region took part in the test of the system, which was first established in 2005 by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established under the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

“This past decade alone has shown us the terrible destructive power of earthquakes and tsunami on several occasions,” said UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova.

“Today’s test represents a significant step towards improving security for the lives of tens of millions of people in the North-eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean, and meeting UNESCO’s ambition of establishing early warning systems globally,” she stated.

A test message was set via e-mail, fax and the Global Telecommunications System from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) in Turkey to the 31 focal points. Early results show the messages were well received within a few minutes of being sent, according to a news release issued by UNESCO.

“The purpose of the test was to ensure the effective communication between potential regional and national tsunami warning focal points,” said Ocal Necmioglu, co-chair of the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAMTWS) and lead scientist for today’s exercise at KOERI.

“The exercise went smoothly. A full evaluation will be made in the coming weeks,” he added.

The success of this first test paves the way for the establishment of regional tsunami warning centres. The first two, Turkey’s KOERI and the Atomic Energy Centre in France, should be operational some time in 2012 when a more exhaustive test will be conducted. Others tests are planned for Greece, Italy and Portugal at a later date.

Text : United Nations News Center

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With its location in the Cascadia subduction zone, a seismically-active area, the question is not if an earthquake will hit the Canadian city, but when.

For generations Vancouverites have heard that a major earthquake is due to hit the city “once every 500 years”, but it has never happened. As a result, locals have grown pessimistic and even indifferent to the possibility of it ever happening. The last major quake was thought to have hit the city about 300 years ago, long before western settlers arrived.

Yet, with its location on the Pacific west coast, along a stretch that includes Anchorage, Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, cities that have all been hit and damaged by earthquakes, new research points out Vancouver’s time could be closer than originally thought.

According to research released by the University of Oregon earlier this year, there is a one-in-three chance that a major earthquake could strike the Pacific Northwest, an area home to Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and Victoria, within the next 50 years.

The researchers believe Cascadia is not one large subduction zone stretching from northern California to British Columbia, as previously thought, but at least four separate segments. They suggest that instead of the entire fault rupturing at once, it will break into smaller parts with more frequent earthquakes.

“We need to be ready for it,” states Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, who has made environmental issues for the city his top priority since taking office two years ago.”There’s a huge role for citizens to be prepared. I don’t think Vancouverites are anywhere near as ready as they should be in their homes. We see significantly more energy and preparedness and awareness around California, for example. We’re looking at some of their educations efforts to implement here.”

Courtesy Xinhuanet.com  We encourage our readers to read the article in full

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The earthquake was one of the five most powerful earthquakes recorded in the world since instrumental detection and record keeping began around 1900. The resulting tsunami flooded dozens of coastal cities, numerous ports, and the broad coastal plain around Sendai—the nearest major city to the earthquake, at a distance of 130 km (80 mi) from the epicenter. It is now estimated from aerial and satellite photography that an area of almost 500 km² (200 mi²) was inundated by the tsunami.

Members of the May 2011 international tsunami survey team near their main survey transect. Sendai Airport is in the background. Survey team members and affiliations are (bottom row, left to right) Kazuhisa Goto (Chiba Institute of Technology, Japan), Shigehiro Fujino (University of Tsukuba, Japan), Witek Szczuciski (Adam Mickiewicz University, Poland), Yuichi Nishimura (Hokkaido University, Japan), Daisuke Sugawara (Tohoku University, Japan); (top row, left to right) Eko Yulianto (Indonesian Institute of Science, Indonesia), Rob Witter (Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, U.S.A.), Catherine Chagué-Goff (University of New South Wales, Australia), Dave Tappin (British Geological Survey, United Kingdom), Bruce Richmond (USGS, U.S.A.), and Bruce Jaffe (USGS, U.S.A.).

In May 2011, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists Bruce Jaffe and Bruce Richmond examined sediment deposited by the tsunami in and around Sendai as part of an international tsunami survey team organized by Japanese scientific cooperators. The 11 members of the team came from Japan, the United States, Australia, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Indonesia.

Survey teams try to enter tsunami-stricken areas as soon as possible after rescue and recovery work to document physical evidence of tsunami flow characteristics—such as debris in trees, high-water stains on buildings, and sedimentary deposits—before it is degraded or destroyed by natural forces or cleanup activities. Japanese researchers began this process during the second week after the earthquake; as the situation in Japan improved, they invited scientists from the international tsunami-research community to assist with gathering data from the large area affected by the tsunami.

The May reconnaissance survey focused on the characteristics of tsunami sediment deposits in the vicinity of Sendai Airport, with a specific emphasis on how these characteristics varied with tsunami speed and flow depth, topography (including microtopography), distance from the coast, urban and rural settings, land subsidence caused by the earthquake, and other aspects of natural and man-made features of the landscape. Among the information the scientists collected were data on water levels, flow directions, topography, sediment thickness, grain size, and sedimentary structures (patterns in the sediment produced by variations in such factors as the speed of the water from which the sediment was deposited and the composition and grain size of the sediment). They also collected sediment samples for microfossil, geochemical, and other analyses. The sedimentary evidence of the tsunami was complicated by liquefaction of some coastal-plain sediment during the earthquake and an extensive canal system that affected the movement of the tsunami waves and the sediment they carried.

Diagram illustrating some of the terms used to describe tsunami characteristics.

Photographs from Arahama beach on the Sendai coastal plain taken (A) before (April 11, 2010) and (B) after (May 4, 2011) the tsunami show damage to vegetation, landscape, and buildings. The buildings at far right and left were completely destroyed; all that remains are their foundations. The restroom building in the center survived the tsunami but underwent extreme scour and channeling around its base. The highest point of limb removal on the trees (trim line) shows the minimum water level of the tsunami in this area, which was measured as between 7 and 9 m (23 and 30 ft) above the ground (10-12 m [33-39 ft] above sea level).

This tsunami was particularly well documented in video footage shot by news agencies and citizens. The survey team took advantage of the video data by focusing their measurement and sampling efforts on areas where footage is available. One video they are using, posted at http://www.zimbio.com/Japan+Earthquake+2011/articles/PF8WtyjiF4c/Sendai+Tsunami+Video+Japan, shows the tsunami hitting the Sendai Airport. The team collected data along a transect near the airport where sand and mud were deposited more than 4 km inland—the longest post-tsunami transect in which tsunami deposits have been mapped in detail. The scientists will compare data from the sediment deposits with data from the video in hopes of relating characteristics of the deposits to the flow history of the tsunami. For example, they will compare the number and thickness of layers in the tsunami deposits with the number of waves and the flow speeds observed in the video.

The data collected in Japan, like data collected in field surveys after other recent tsunamis, will improve scientists’ ability to recognize and interpret tsunami deposits from ancient events. Some of the scientists on the survey team will use the data to develop numerical models of tsunami sediment transport that can be applied to tsunami deposits in the geologic record to determine the characteristics—approximate size and speed, for example—of ancient tsunamis. Data from the Japanese study will also help scientists improve criteria for distinguishing tsunami deposits from large-storm deposits (see related Sound Waves article “Distinguishing Tsunami from Storm Deposits in the Geologic Record“).

Wall of excavated trench showing the sedimentary structures of a tsunami deposit (mostly horizontal sand layers) and locations (rectangular markers on right) where sediment samples were collected for laboratory analyses.

Additionally, the reconnaissance team will attempt to draw analogies between the March 11, 2011, tsunami deposits and deposits of predecessor events, such as the Jōgan tsunami, which struck the Sendai plain in A.D. 869 and was named after the emperor of the time. Japanese scientist Koji Minoura (Tohoku University) and colleagues published a paper in 2001 describing Jōgan tsunami sand deposits and two older sand deposits interpreted as evidence of earlier large tsunamis (Journal of Natural Disaster Science, v. 23, no. 2, p. 83-88, http://www.jsnds.org/contents/jnds/23_2.html). The ages of the two earlier tsunami deposits are A.D. 140-150 and 910-670 B.C. On the basis of this limited paleotsunami record for the Sendai coastal plain, the authors inferred a tsunami recurrence interval of 800-1,100 years.

At the end of the paper they wrote, “More than 1,100 years have passed since the Jōgan tsunami and, given the reoccurrence interval, the possibility of a large tsunami striking the Sendai plain is high. Our numerical findings indicate that a tsunami similar to the Jōgan one would inundate the present coastal plain for about 2.5-3 km inland,” a prediction that proved remarkably accurate.

Picture at right : Core collected by the survey team 1.6 km (1 mi) inland at Arahama on the Sendai coastal plain contains sandy deposits from the A.D. 869 Jōgan tsunami about 40 cm beneath the March 11, 2011, tsunami deposits. We chose the site on the basis of a report of the Jōgan tsunami deposits by Yuki Sawai (Active Fault Research Center) and colleagues in the Annual Report on Active Fault and Paleoearthquake Researches (2008, no. 8, p. 17-70, http://unit.aist.go.jp/actfault-eq/seika/h19seika/pdf/02.sawai.pdf [5.5 MB PDF]) and numerical modeling of Jōgan tsunami inundation by Kenji Satake (Active Fault Research Center) and colleagues (same volume, p. 71-89, http://unit.aist.go.jp/actfault-eq/seika/h19seika/pdf/03.satake.pdf [7.1 MB PDF]). The relative magnitudes of the Jōgan and 2011 tsunamis cannot be inferred from the thickness of each deposit, which is affected by local topography as well as sediment grain size and tsunami flow speed. [larger version]

Japan not only has the longest written record of historical tsunamis in the world, but it also has a vigorous paleotsunami research program designed to extend the tsunami record into the past and improve tsunami-hazard assessments. Examining field evidence of recent and historical tsunamis is critical to understanding these infrequent but catastrophic phenomena. The data collected recently in Japan by the international tsunami survey team will be used to develop tools for interpreting the geologic record of tsunamis. These tools can be applied to other areas where the same coastal hazard is present, such as the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, and used to decrease future loss of life and property from tsunamis.

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UPDATE : another experience report which reached us a couple of days after the earthquake :
Bodrum : The shaking caused glasses to fall from tables, and a long crack in the marble floor of hotel floor outside (light shaking indicated).

UPDATE : A couple of weeks ago, a Turkish seismologist told me during a seminar,  that he had a discussion with the mayor of an important Turkish tourist destination with important faulting zones in the area. The mayor refused to inform tourists about potential earthquakes, as he feared a possible decrease in tourist visits. This example shows that we will probably need a few additional devastating earthquakes before the mindset will be changed to earthquake preparedness.  This story is identical for a lot of Mediterranean destinations like Greece, Italy, Morocco, Croatia etc.

Recent small earthquakes below Bodrum, Turkey. - White lines are mapped seismic faults

UPDATE : Earthquake-Report.com wants to express their concern on the lack of information from Tour operators and the Local tourist sector to deal with the danger of earthquakes. Putting heads in the ground like an ostrich as the proverb says, is NO solution to the problem. The facts are simple (seismically active areas are mostly well known all over the world) and the solution also (building earthquake resistant construction and informing people about earthquake preparedness).  What to do during an earthquake is so simple that we see it almost as an offense not to do so.
Everybody knows about the fire escape information on the door of every hotel room. The chance of being hit by an earthquake in some seismic active areas is even bigger than the chance that the hotel is set on fire. We plea to the hotel owners to do the same for earthquake preparedness.

UPDATE : Earthquake-Report gets regular reports from frightened tourists visiting seismic active areas. Contrary to local people who are used to the minor shaking (can anyone be used to shaking at all?), tourists are asking themselves what to do now.  Well, the basic idea can be written in one sentence : STAY INSIDE, DROP COVER AND HOLD (more details can be found here).

UPDATE : An “Earthquake Experience” report from a vacationer in Bodrum : Were here in Bodrum for two weeks ,on Tuesday we had a light rumbling but on Saturday there was bad shaking and a crack apperd  in the wall of the bedroom. It was that bad here that were thinking of going home.  (Moderate shaking indicated)

UPDATE : The black lines on the map are mapped fault lines. The epicenter locations (red dots) can be found in a wider area.  As you can see at the red dots, a lot of these minor to weak quakes happened almost below Bodrum

Image courtesy koeri.boun.edu.tr

UPDATE : Experience report from Rachel Çakmak living in Bodrum as it arrived at earthquake- report.com a couple of minutes after the shaking was felt.

I was still asleep in bed at 25.06.2011… 10:19am (turkish time). Was firstly awakened by the sound similar to a large object be moved). It shook the bed, enough for me to jump out.
We have been experiencing a few tremors over the past few days. Could you please tell me where these tremors are connected to and why we are experiencing these tremors everyday, and they are getting bigger. Is this a warning? or just the vibrations from a larger earthquake elsewhere??

Earthquake-Report.com answer : As you can see on the above map, the greater Bodrum area to the North and East have a number of known faults. As tectonic plates are in constant movement the faulting zones (not only the fault line itself) sometimes crack a little (or more). 99% of these cracks are innocent  and can only be recorded by seismographs, people will not feel them.  You are now living through a series of weak quakes which, as they are occurring at only 5 km beneath the surface,  are feeling stronger as quakes. These earthquakes are, as far as we can see, not related to any other recent earthquake in the area.
As to your concern about a possible bigger quake to come, nobody will be able to predict this. Science makes progress but more in mapping dangerous areas, than in predicting the strength or the time that the next damaging earthquake will occur.

I was in Bodrum that time on holiday and experienced the earthquake. Made me feel really frightened and I wanted for several days just to travel home again to Norway. The worst was the lack of information… People in Bodrum did not want to talk about it, I suppose they were frigthened too. When I read this now it made me feel good, it was not only me that felt uneasy..

UPDATE : The Turkish seismological services report a 3.6 magnitude at a depth of 5 km (very weak – normally we do not report on these small quakes but we make an exception in this case)

Earthquake summary
Earthquake-Report.com received a few reports on a weak shaking (more felt as a light shaking) from one of Turkey’s most important tourist destinations : Bodrum. Although the shocks caused NO damage or injuries, people asked themselves whether these shocks were the prelude of more and stronger to come.

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 3.9 (EMSC)  3.6 (Turkey)
UTC Time : 2011-06-25 07:18:36.0 UTC
Local time at epicenter : local time 10:18:36.8 2011-06-25
Depth (Hypocenter) : 6 km (EMSC) 5 km (Turkey)
Geo-location(s) :
3 km S Bodrum (pop 39,317)
102 km S Aydin (pop 163,022)

Links to important maps
Google satellite map of the area showing the kind of terrain the earthquake took place

QuakeSOS+ and QuakeSOS free are iPhone applications developed by Armand Vervaeck, the founder of Earthquake Report. The Application simplifies immediate group communication to friends and family members (with your exact GPS location) and is feeding the users with Earthquake Report news. The 0.99 US$ QuakeSOS+ version will support the activities of SOS Earthquakes.

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I did feel it – Ik heb het gevoeld – Το έκανα αισθάνεται – Yo lo siento – 我的确感到了 – 私はそれを感じていました- Ich habe es gefühlt – Bunu hissediyorum yaptı – لم أشعر أنه

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