Wordwide volcano and earthquake news – Will We Ever Be Able to Predict Earthquakes?

Last update: April 21, 2014 at 11:34 pm by By

After Rodger Wilson was obliged to discontinue his daily participation at this site, we have decided to start up an El Hierro type article. The newest additions will always be on top and if the article gets too long, we will cut off a part of it and archive it. This url will always be the one to follow and if you leave our page open in your browser, the page will refresh every 60 minutes automatically.
Please be a little patient with this new format.
This report is compiled out of many information sources.

For our El Hierro volcano report : Click here


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Will We Ever Be Able to Predict Earthquakes? (April 21, 2014)
The 1970s was to be the decade when earthquake prediction became a reality. In 1975 the Chinese government announced that it had ordered an evacuation of a major city hours before a major quake struck. The Russians were saying that they were using a variety of techniques routinely to predict not only large earthquakes but moderate ones, too. And in the United States, scientists had discovered a number of anomalies near Los Angeles—a broad uplift of the ground, a slowing of seismic waves, increased emission of radon gas—that indicated the city would soon be razed by strong seismic shaking.
And then it all collapsed—that is, the effort to predict earthquakes collapsed.
Read the full article here


 

Momotombo and Apoyaque volcanos, Nicaragua (April 12, 2014)
Rodger wilson reports :
A M6.2 event last night which has triggered significant swarm seismicity at both Momotombo and Apoyaque volcanoes in Nicaragua.
Attached are the Momotombo seismograms.
MOMN_SHZ_NU_--.2014041012 MOMN_SHZ_NU_--.2014041100

 

Mount Kelud (Java, Indonesia) makes thousands of  people to evacuate (February 14)
Mount Kelud erupted yesterday evening. Due to the cloud cover, no footage of the eruption itself is available but the result of the eruption can be clearly seen on the video below. The eruption sent volcanic ash covering an area 500 kilometres (310 mi) in diameter. The rain of ash covered a third of Java island from Malang to Yogyakarta in Central Java.
Mount Kelud is located in East Java, has a height of 1,730 meters, and erupted on Thursday (13/2) at 22:50 local time  (UTC+7). The impact of the eruption was not only visible in nearby Kediri and Blitar,  but also in other areas such as Kebumen, Sidoarjo, Surabaya, Mojokerto, Madiun, Yogyakarta, Sukoharjo, and Kudat.
3 airports (Juanda Surabaya, Adisumarno Solo and Yogyakarta Adisucipto) are closed due to the danger of ash in the engines. Volcanic ash in the airplane engines can cause engine failure and crashes)
Health experts are requesting the population residing around Mount Kelud to be aware of exposure to volcanic ash. Volcanic ash is very dangerous if inhaled by human beings and can cause also skin irritation. Additionally, inflammation of the eyes is also a possibility.

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Screen Shot 2014-02-14 at 10.29.34

Image CC Wikipedia


 

Rodger Wilson reports (February 13)

Seismicity continues at Mammoth Mountain volcano (CA) (staion MMP).  Whereas yesterday’s activity was characterized by higher magnitude events between M1.0 and M2.3 and a few short pulses of spasmodic tremor, today’s activity appears to be the opposite with numerous smaller magnitude events and more frequent periods of tremor.  I have included the most recent plots of deformation occurring in-tandem with the seismicity.  Both the tilt and dilatometer data show another episode of movement occurring on or around 10 February.  I have to be careful in attributing all the movement to volcanic processes as the region is also receiving heavy snow at this time!  The instruments were installed deep underground to prevent surface activity such as snowfall affecting readings,..but it still can!
Several Nicaraguan volcanoes are giving “primers” on long-period (volcanic) seismicity today, including:  San Cristobal (station CRIN), Masaya (station MASN), and Concepcion (station CONN). Note the emergent (gradual) onsets of the events, their generally low amplitudes and long duration vs. amplitude, as well as their low frequency content as denoted by alot of “open space” between peaks and valleys of their waveforms. Volcano-tectonic, or just plain tectonic earthquakes usually have sharp, impulsive onsets with high frequency content (dark traces due to sharp, tightly spaced peaks and valleys), and relatively short durations versus their amplitudes (if they are local events!).
A small eruption occurred yesterday (video included) at Chaparrastique (San Miguel) volcano (El Salvador) (station VSM), following days of slowly increasing tremor.  Since the event, tremor has eased slightly at the volcano, but will likely rebuild over the next few days.
  Activity is slowly waning at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) (station RETU).
Nishinoshima volcano island, Japan (January 7)
The video below is from yesterday’s TV Asahi news, Asahi published a video from the Japanese coast guard, taken on February 11th at around 2pm. The island is still growing. There is red lava in 2 craters. And the lava stream to the east, that stopped in december, is flowing again.The coast guard released another warning for ships and planes in the area not to come too close. It is still dangerous. (Via Annette Schörner)
http://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_society/articles/000021344.html

 

Rodger Wilson reports (February 12)

Small earthquakes (magnitudes generally < M2.0) continue unabated at Mammoth Mountain volcano (CA) (station MMP).  There have been fewer and shorter duration pulses of spasmodic tremor during the past 24 hours.  I have included a graphic showing the relationship between spasmodic tremor and deformation observed at the volcano during previous episodes of unrest.
There have been periodic very low frequency (<1 Hz) visible on spectrograms during this sequence that may represent episodes of deformation.

Also,…another pulse of seismicity at Yellowstone overnight (station YNR).

Neither of these sequences indicate forthcoming eruptive activity, but the activity at Mammoth is clearly volcanic in nature and scientifically interesting to watch.  It is also the highest level of shallow seismicity to occur at the volcano since the late 1990′s.


 

Rodger Wilson reports (February 11)
Spasmodic tremor (fluid movement) has become more frequent during the past 24 hours at Mammoth Mountain volcano (CA) (station MMP).  Dilatometers also show changes associated with the activity during the same period.  Several pulse-like periods of extension across the volcano have occurred since the first of the month, associated with increases in seismic activity.  Also very shallow earthquakes have appeared immediately west of the edifice overnight.

Another United States caldera (Yellowstone) is showing some signs of life over the past few days (station NRP).  Careful all you eruption baiters!!!  This activity is far from pre-eruptive levels!!!

Tremor at Chaparrastique (San Miguel) volcano (El Salvador) (station VSM) has continued to climb, periodically saturating (overloading) local seismometers overnight.

Eruptive activity at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) (station RETU) has de-volved into numerous discrete explosions now.


 

Rodger Wilson reports (February 10)
An earthquake swarm continues beneath Mammoth Mountain (CA) (station MRD) albeit at a reduced rate (still some short pulses of spasmodic tremor though).
SNET continues to observe rising seismic energy emanating from Chaparrastique (San Miguel) volcano (El Salvador) (station VSM). An earthquake swarm occurred amidst the continuous tremor resonating from the volcano beneath its North flank yesterday.
Explosive outbursts (including pyroclastic flows) continue at a slightly reduced rate at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) (station RETU).
Volcanic seismicity remains elevated at Ubinas volcano (Peru) as well.


 

Rodger Wilson reports (February 8)
Two relatively strong pulses of spasmodic tremor (fluid movement) occurred at Mammoth Mountain volcano (CA) (station MRD) early today.  Seismic events appear to have further shallowed, to around 3 km now, versus the 5 km of previous days.  Compared with the deformation recorded during the deep earthquake swarm at the volcano in October 2012, the current shallow activity is only producing weak uplift and extension.  I also note a 1 Hz “noise” developing on spectrograms during the swarm activity over the past two days.  Not sure what to make of it, but it’s real.


 

Nishinoshima volcano island, Japan (January 7)
The video link below is showing the new island volcano’s new crater. As you will be able to see also that the crater height (beautiful round shaped crater) is building up gradually. (via Annette Schörner)
http://news.tbs.co.jp/20140204/newseye/tbs_newseye2119549.html

Rodger Wilson reports (February 7)

There’s a shallow (~5km depth) earthquake swarm underway at Mammoth Mountain volcano, California (station MRD) (Do you think this might herald the arrival to near the surface of fluids involved with the October 2012 deep swarm beneath Mammoth?).

Eruptive activity is again intensifying at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) (station RETU) according to current spectrograms there (read from bottom to top).

Internal tremor is also (slowly) intensifying at Chapparastique (San Miguel) volcano (El Salvador) (station VSM).

Ubinas volcano (Peru) has also experienced numerous volcanic earthquakes which have now evolved into extended pulses of volcanic tremor at the volcano.


 

Tungurahua pyroclastic flow video (February 4)
The video below shows very well how a pyroclastic hot cloud descends from the volcano slopes and continues further and further. At the end the cloud arrived closer and closer to the video recording people


 

Tungurahua Update (February 2 @ 09:20 UTC)
- The Ecuadorian Civil Defense authority has called the Orange alert for a limited number of villages on the slopes of the volcano. Hundreds of people living in these villages have received the order to evacuate. Especially the extremely hot pyroclastic flows are a big risk for these communities.
The city of Banos, at the foot of the big volcano, has received instructions to prepare for a possible evacuation if the current situation would deteriorate.
A number of nice images from the eruptive activity can be found here


 

Big eruption on Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador (February 1 @ 23:12 UTC)
This is the webcam image we have copied a few moments ago . the image dates from less than an hour ago !
The volcano reactivated last Thursday. Today continues emission of ash is taking place. The ash is luckily carried away in the direction of the Oriente (lowlands to the east). The eruption can be seen from far away (ie Riobamba)
Check the live webcams here : IGEPN1IGEPN2IGEPN3IGEPN4IGEPN5IGEPN6

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Tungurahua-01022014-animated

Returned villagers have to flee again on Sinabung volcano, 14 people killed (February 1)
An Indonesian volcano erupted on the island of Sumatra, leaving at least 14 people dead. Torrents of lava and pyroclastic flows gave neighboring villages an almost apocalyptic look.
2,460-meter-high Mount Sinabung erupted three times on Saturday, producing columns of ash about 2 kilometers tall and spreading hot rocks and ash over a 4.5 kilometer radius, said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, spokesman for National Agency For Disaster Management (BNPB).
The RT report is very well written en has a lot of images showing what happened earlier today

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OLDER ARCHIVED PARTS OF THIS REPORT :
2013 : July 8 – July 31
2013 : June 24 – July 7
2013 : June 8 – June 23
2013 : May 26 – June 7
2013 : June 8 – August 20
2013 : August 21 – October 27
2013 : October 28 – December 12
2013 : December 13 – January 30

Comments

  1. Gordon Hervey says:

    October 18 2013 UTC
    I always enjoy these reports and wanted to ask a question that I have also posted on Volcano Monitor. Japan Today has an Oct 18 article “Izu Oshima mayor under fire for not issuing evacuation orders.” A Tokyo Uni expert is quoted “the top layer of volcanic ash from recent explosions had been washed off by the massive rainfall….knocking down trees and…houses”. Dozens still missing or dead. My point is that the local volcano Mount Mihara must have had frequent explosions, yet I have not seen the name before now on any listings, anywhere. Modis data problems, Japan keeping secrets, what could this sort of thing imply?

    • Richard Rodger Wilson says:

      Hi Gordon,

      You have to remember, when a volcanologist (geologist) says “recent” he may be referring to an event that has occurred during the last 10,000 years! Mount Mihara has in fact erupted more recently (in a big way in 1986!) to produce exposed ash layers on the island. Regardless of their age, fragmental volcanic deposits are always susceptible to remobilization from heavy rains. If you live any time on a volcano you will understand this, so I don’t understand the accusatory aspect of the headline.

      Thanks for reading our report!

      Rodger

    • Gordon Hervey says:

      Thanks very much for your reply, I’m browsing a bit to try and find how ‘recent’ the Mt Mihara explosions have been. Apparently the mayor was out of town during the typhoon and took a decision NOT to evacuate Izu. As it turned out, that cost a lot of lives. It would seem to me that the description of ash buildup as ‘recent’ probably means ‘since the previous typhoon’, as otherwise the disaster might have occured then?

  2. Craig Heden says:

    Multiple seismo stations around Mt. Shasta are showing what appears to be episodic “pulses” of activity.
    The amplitude of some events are significantly higher than what I usually see.
    I am in visual contact with Mt. Shasta from my home, and no weather-related phenomena appears present.
    I wonder if this is the beginning/associated of deep-tremor event, or whether there is magmatic movement involved? Or, maybe purely tectonic?
    Maybe Roger can comment if this activity is indeed unusual?

    • Armand Vervaeck says:

      I will surely ask Rodger, Craig – Thanks for commenting

    • Richard Rodger Wilson says:

      Hi Craig,

      I’m pretty sure the pulses (the longer, cigar-shaped signals?) you refer to are actually produced by trains (provided you are looking at the northwest flank and Military Pass seismometers). How do I know this you ask?,…I used to maintain the College of the Siskiyous seismographs way back in the early 1980′s for Mr. Paul Dawson who was the C.O.S. Geology Instructor at that time.

      Thanks for your readership Craig!

      Rodger

    • Craig Heden says:

      Rodger and Armand,
      Thanks for your attention to my question. The two stations I was noting unusual seismo-signals were LMP and LGB. Both stations appear quite a ways away from the railroad. Also, as of now, (10-17-13, 12:36 PDT), both stations indicate different types of activity occurred early in the plot as compared to later on. The time duration for each period of elevated signals is also is quite long. I know how long the freight trains can be up there ( I fish the Cantera loop area often), but the duration of the activity appears too long for even the largest trains? Thanks again if you have any further info or theories to share.

  3. Matthew says:

    Some red on the White Island seismic drum today!
    http://www.geonet.org.nz/p/volcano/drums/latest/wiz-seismic-drum.png
    pretty hard to tell whether there was actually an eruption or not, typical NZ weather!

  4. Paul Wyse says:

    I’m curious about the fact that the main seismograph for Cerro Negro in Nicaragua picks up so many more of the volcanic earthquakes at Momotomobo than any of the other INETER seismographs. Has anyone speculated on a remote plumbing connection between Cerro Negro and Momotombo even though they seem to be a litte too far apart? Telica is certainly much closer to Cerro Negro than Momotombo is and yet it seems that there’s only tectonic earthquakes that seem to show up on both the Cerro Negro and Telica graphs.

    • Richard Rodger Wilson says:

      Hi Paul,

      Sorry it’s taken so long for me to respond to your questions! I’m not that familiar with seismic equipment that INETER has on each of the volcanoes, but the discrepencies you noted in seismic data from adjacent volcanoes usually results from: a) different settings in the gain or amplification of individual stations, and b) the type of seismometers placed on individual volcanoes. For instance, many observatories have switched-over to using broad-band instrumentation at volcanoes during the past decade to detect (just as the name implies) the broader range of seismic wave frequencies generated by volcanoes. The “old school” (i.e. less sensitive) single-component vertical seismometers (but continue to be used) are most sensitive to the relatively high frequencies (> 5Hz) generated by nearby events and have difficulty in detecting special types (low-frequency) of volcanic earthquakes as well as more distant events.

      Hope this helps!
      Rodger

  5. rachael says:

    hello i live twety miles of mount shasta its looms in our view in most siskiyou couny. I dont feel it will blow up no earth quakes here the large earth quake a while ago originating frm lassen was not even noticable my thaughts are that lassen will be going sooner tan later that is not far from here
    George Wilson.. if you ever need photos or information from someone who lives next to mount shasta let me know… your site is so great thanks yu

    • Armand Vervaeck says:

      Thanks George! There was just a small earthquake at Mount Shasta overnight! I used to live in Weed for three years in the early 1980′s. There was alot more activity around Shasta at that time. You are right, it is very quiet for a volcano!

  6. Hi My name is Alex Schmollinger and I’m from Dallas TX and i just want too know is MT. Shasta getting ready too go off and blow it’s top in the 2013 year too come and i was in the Shasta area and i didn’t see any smoke or feel any recent quakes around the big Shasta Volcano so i need someone out there too tell me is Mt Shasta going too go off in 2013 year span or no?

    • Richard Rodger Wilson says:

      Hi Alex,

      Actually, Mount Shasta is one of the “quieter” Cascade volcanoes. There were seismic episodes during the late 1970′s, early 1980′s and again in the early 1990′s that made volcanologists sort of sit up and take notice of Mount Shasta, but since those periods,…the volcano has been relatively silent.

  7. v says:

    “This is likely the result of the infamous “familiarity breeds contempt” syndrome where the local population becomes complacent near a growing lava dome.” The real problem is that the scientists are blind and they suffer from the same syndrome.

    • Richard Rodger Wilson says:

      Hi v,

      Not so much the scientists being blind in this case. We are all to some extent free to (…and guilty of) ignore clear warning signs in all sorts of circumstances.

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